About Taiwan Tracker

What is this?

Taiwan Tracker is a personal project built to monitor the current risk of a Taiwan Strait crisis — one of the most consequential geopolitical flashpoints of our time. The goal is simple: bring together the most useful public signals in one place so you don't have to chase them down yourself.

Right now the main data source is prediction markets — platforms where people put real money behind specific scenarios, which tends to produce more honest and faster-updating estimates than expert commentary. More data sources are planned in the near term.

This is an independent project, run by one person. No affiliation with any government, news organisation, think tank, or prediction market platform.

Why prediction markets (for now)?

Prediction markets are one of the few forecasting tools where participants have real financial skin in the game, which tends to produce more honest and faster-updating estimates than expert commentary or media narratives. They're not perfect — especially for rare, high-stakes events like wars — but they offer a transparent, continuously updated signal that's hard to dismiss.

Data sources

Polymarket ↗

Real-money USDC markets. High liquidity, fast price discovery on geopolitical events.

Kalshi ↗

US-regulated exchange (CFTC). Real-money markets on political and macro events.

Manifold ↗

Play-money platform. Wide coverage of niche geopolitical questions.

Metaculus ↗

Community forecasting with expert participation and a long track record.

Disclaimer

This site is for informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, political, military, or strategic advice of any kind.

Prediction market probabilities reflect the collective bets of traders on specific platforms at a specific moment in time. They are not intelligence assessments, official government positions, or academic forecasts. Markets can be wrong — sometimes badly. They can be influenced by misinformation, low liquidity, or collective miscalibration.

Do not use anything on this site to make decisions about travel, investment, personal safety, or anything else consequential. If you need reliable risk assessment for serious purposes, consult qualified professionals with access to primary sources.

This project makes no guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data shown. API responses from third-party platforms may be delayed, incorrect, or unavailable. Market data is displayed as-is from source platforms.

Contact

Feedback, data issues, or market suggestions: contact email not configured